The joint United States and Israeli military campaign against Iran, which commenced on 28 February 2026, has become the most intensive aerial operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Now entering its seventeenth day, the air war has fundamentally altered the regional security landscape and triggered a cascade of consequences for global aviation.
The opening salvo struck at approximately 9.45am Tehran local time, targeting leadership compounds, military installations and nuclear facilities across the country. Within hours, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed dead, along with several senior military officials including defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour. The strikes were precise and devastating, with US Central Command (CENTCOM) later confirming that more than 5,000 targets had been hit by 10 March.
Iran’s response was swift and far reaching. In the first 24 hours alone, Tehran launched 167 ballistic and cruise missiles and 541 drones toward the United Arab Emirates. By 5 March, Iran had fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones, according to Fars News Agency. The retaliatory strikes targeted US military bases across nine countries, including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. An Iranian drone even struck a runway at the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus.
The Israeli Air Force achieved a historic milestone on 4 March when an F 35I Adir shot down an Iranian Yak 130 over Tehran in what became the first confirmed aerial engagement between a stealth fighter and a manned aircraft. The IDF subsequently struck more than 200 targets across western and central Iran, including the destruction of the Supreme Leader’s aircraft at Mehrabad Airport.
As the conflict progressed, the rate of Iranian missile launches declined significantly. Analysts attributed this to a combination of depleted stockpiles and a deliberate rationing strategy. By day 15, Iran was launching only four missiles and six drones daily toward the UAE, compared to hundreds in the opening phase. The White House declared on 15 March that Iran’s ballistic missile capacity was “functionally destroyed” and its navy “assessed combat ineffective.”
The humanitarian toll has been severe. Iran’s Health Ministry reports at least 1,444 people killed and 18,551 injured. Across the region, more than 2,300 people have lost their lives. The deadliest single incident occurred when a strike on a school in Minab killed 168 people, including over 100 children.
The conflict shows no sign of abating. Mojtaba Khamenei, elected on 8 March to succeed his father as Supreme Leader, has maintained that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to pressure the United States. Iran’s foreign minister has stated that Tehran has not requested a ceasefire, directly contradicting claims by President Trump.
For the aviation industry, the war has created unprecedented disruption that continues to reshape global air travel routes and economics.
