The closure of Gulf aviation hubs has sent shockwaves through Southeast Asian aviation, exposing the region’s deep dependency on Middle Eastern transit infrastructure for connectivity with Europe, Africa and the wider world. Carriers across the region have cancelled flights, rerouted services and absorbed significant financial losses as the 2026 Iran War reshapes global air travel patterns.
Singapore Airlines, the region’s largest full service carrier, cancelled all flights to the Middle East immediately after hostilities commenced. At least 16 flights were scrapped between 28 February and 1 March, including the Singapore to Dubai service and Scoot’s Singapore to Jeddah flights. The carrier’s shares fell 4.5 per cent in the days following the outbreak of conflict.
Thai Airways reported only minor adjustments to its European schedules, supported by Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport’s role as a stable transit point that does not depend on Middle Eastern airspace for most of its European connections. This positioning has given Thai Airways a relative advantage, with the carrier absorbing some rerouted passenger demand.
Cathay Pacific cancelled all Middle Eastern services, including passenger flights to Dubai and Riyadh. Japan Airlines suspended its Tokyo to Doha service. Vietnam Airlines diverted flights to avoid conflict zones, prioritising crew and passenger safety while absorbing higher fuel costs from longer routings.
The impact on regional low cost carriers has been particularly acute. AirAsia, Lion Air and Garuda Indonesia, while not operating extensive Middle Eastern services, rely on the Gulf corridor for efficient routing on any potential European expansion and face the indirect effects of elevated fuel prices. The Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia’s advisory applied to all airlines operating flights to and from the country, requiring continuous monitoring and conservative operational decisions.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines captured the scale of the challenge. Outgoing director general Subhas Menon noted that the closure of Middle Eastern airspace, combined with the ongoing restriction on Russian and Ukrainian airspace, left Asian carriers with extremely limited options for European routes. “The very few alternatives carry high operating cost in terms of longer flying and deploying crew resources,” Menon stated.
Aviation analyst Brendan Sobie offered a nuanced assessment, noting that while East Asian carriers operate relatively few direct flights to the affected airports, the secondary effects are significant. “You have the potential impact of higher oil prices and the overall political and economic instability globally. For those Asian airlines operating to Europe you also have longer flights in some cases due to airspace closures.”
The disruption has created a narrow silver lining for some carriers. Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific, which operate several nonstop routes between Asia and Europe that had already been rerouted to avoid Russian airspace since 2022, found themselves better positioned than competitors dependent on Gulf transit. Load factors on these direct services have increased as displaced passengers seek alternative connections.
However, analysts cautioned that this benefit is marginal compared to the overall damage. “I don’t think anybody’s happy,” Sobie observed. “Some airlines will have routes that see an extra surge in load factor and revenue, but it does not offset the negative of how this crisis has impacted the overall industry.”
For Southeast Asian carriers operating on tight margins, the combination of lost connectivity, higher fuel costs and reduced passenger demand represents a serious threat to profitability during what was expected to be a strong growth year.
